大学図書館における図書の貸出頻度についての確率過程モデルの検討―負の二項分布を中心として

岸田和明; Kazuaki Kishida; 原田隆史; Takashi Harada; 高山正也; Masaya Takayama; 小山治之; Haruyuki Ogawa; 逸村裕; Hiroshi Itsumura

doi:10.46895/lis.25.25

大学図書館における図書の貸出頻度についての確率過程モデルの検討―負の二項分布を中心としてAn examination of stochastic models for the number of book circulations in academic libraries : Concerning to a negative binomial distribution

岸田和明¹，原田隆史¹，高山正也²，小山治之³，逸村裕⁴Kazuaki Kishida¹, Takashi Harada¹, Masaya Takayama², Haruyuki Ogawa³, Hiroshi Itsumura⁴

¹ 慶應義塾大学大学院文学研究科図書館・情報学専攻Graduate School of Library and Information Science, Keio University ◇ 〒108-8345 東京都港区三田二丁目15番45号 ◇ Mita 2-15-45, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan

² 慶應義塾大学文学部図書館・情報学科教授Professer, School of Library and Information Science, Keio University ◇ 〒108-8345 東京都港区三田二丁目15番45号 ◇ Mita 2-15-45, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan

³ 慶應義塾大学三田情報センター選書課長Mita Library and Information Center, Keio University ◇ 〒108-8345 東京都港区三田二丁目15番45号 ◇ Mita 2-15-45, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan

⁴ 上智大学図書館Sophia University Library ◇ 〒102-8554 東京都千代田区紀尾井町7番1号 ◇ Kioi-cho 7-1, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8554, Japan

発行日：1988年3月25日Published: March 25, 1988

Recently, some library circulation models have been developed, and it has been tried to make use of them for decision making in libraries. One of the main approaches is to use a negative binomial distribution as a book circulation frequency distribution.

In this paper, firstly, we try to examine the validity of a negative binomial distribution as a book circulation frequency distribution in comparison to other mixture distributions — beta binomial, Neiman’s type A, and logarithmic series distributions. As a result, the examination indicates the superiority of the negative binomial distribution.

Secondly, we examine a nonstationary Poisson process model which Q. E. Burrell has developed. It’s result clarifies that Burrell’s model doesn’t be enough to fit the year-by-year change of real circulation frequency distributions of Hiyoshi Library and Information Center in Keio University. So, we modify this model. Our modified model gives a better fitness to real deta than Burrell’s model.